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In this post we provide a measure of “global” r* using data on short- and long-term yields and inflation for several countries with the approach developed in “Global Trends in Interest Rates” (Del Negro, Giannone, Gianno...
A look at how risk premia play a meaningful role in shaping the term structure of returns in the corporate bond market.
Labor markets around the world are being reshaped by powerful trends, including rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and population aging in some regions and youth bulges in others. AI's impact on labor market...
“South Park,” “Slow Horses,” “Neon Genesis Evangelion,” and a Lego-fied “Mandalorian” are just a few of the things you should be watching right now.
A look at men’s and women’s preferences for sex composition, or the mix of men and women, in the workplace.
A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.
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Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find...
Though still near low long-term levels, mortgage delinquencies are up, especially in areas with rising unemployment and worse housing market conditions.
A look at how nonlinear inflation dynamics relate to the slope of the Phillips curve.
The author presents evidence showing that the Phillips curve is alive and steep, and it captures inflation volatility remarkably well.