COP31 explained: What’s at stake at this year’s UN climate summit?

COP31 explained: What’s at stake at this year’s UN climate summit?

Catastrophic floods, deadly heatwaves and prolonged droughts have been a hallmark of 2026, a year in which scientists confirmed that the world is on track to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold.

Against this backdrop, and with a powerful El Niño expected to intensify climate impacts further, representatives of more than 190 countries will gather in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November for COP31, the latest iteration of the keynote annual UN climate conference.

While fossil fuels remain the main driver of warming emissions, the technologies needed to move away from them are advancing at an extraordinary pace. Solar power, electric vehicles and battery storage are becoming increasingly accessible.

Yet many countries continue to struggle to benefit from them. Why?

Ahead of the summit, UN News spoke with Selwin Hart, the UN Special Adviser on Climate Action and Just Transition, about what's at stake, what’s holding back progress and what another round of climate diplomacy can realistically achieve.

What is COP31 and why does it matter?

COP stands for Conference of the Parties, in this case, the countries that are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These annual gatherings allow governments to assess progress and negotiate how to tackle a challenge that no nation can solve alone.

The talks produced the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015, when countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

COPs now extend well beyond government negotiations. Businesses, scientists, Indigenous Peoples, young people and civil society increasingly participate, reflecting the scale of the challenge.

“There’s now a clear recognition that addressing the climate crisis requires all hands on deck,” Mr. Hart explains.

What can a COP actually achieve?

A COP is often judged by the agreement reached at the end, sometimes after days of difficult discussions and last-minute compromises. But Mr. Hart argues that this tells only part of the story.

He identifies three ways these conferences can make a difference:

1. Negotiated agreements: Countries seek consensus on issues such as climate finance, emissions reductions and adaptation, though geopolitical divisions often make ambitious outcomes difficult.
2. The Action Agenda: Governments, development banks, businesses and civil society organizations work together on practical solutions, from expanding renewable energy and modernizing electricity networks to reducing methane emissions.
3. National commitments: Countries use COPs to announce actions at home, including new climate plans, commitments to move away from fossil fuels and contributions to climate funds.

“There’s sometimes this expectation that COPs will always have this big grand deal that will solve the climate crisis. That’s not realistic,” Mr. Hart says.

There’s sometimes this expectation that COPs will always have this big grand deal that will solve the climate crisis. That’s not realistic

This year, Türkiye will host and preside, while Australia is leading the negotiations, working closely with Pacific Island countries.

The summit places particular emphasis on implementation, with Türkiye promoting initiatives on clean energy, food security, resilient cities, greener industries, oceans and waste reduction.

“I’m running a personal campaign to rename the Action Agenda, the Implementation Agenda,” says the top climate adviser, underscoring the need to move beyond promises and focus on practical solutions.

So, what's on the table in Antalya?

Behind the diplomatic language are decisions that could affect millions of lives. Several major issues remain unresolved:

1. Climate finance: Developing countries want wealthier nations to fulfil their financial commitments under the Paris Agreement, while disagreements persist over funding responsibilities, access to finance and how global financial flows can be directed towards climate action.
2. Just transition: Countries agreed last year to establish a mechanism to support the shift to cleaner economies – but still need to decide how it will work.
3. Adaptation: Negotiators will continue to work on measuring progress while developing countries press for greater financial support.
4. Cutting emissions: Governments remain divided over how to strengthen emissions action and deliver on existing commitments.

COP31 will also launch the second global stocktake, the Paris Agreement’s formal process for assessing collective progress towards its long-term goals.

But, haven’t we already lost the fight against global warming?

Scientists warn that the world is set to temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold, a situation known as overshoot. But how far temperatures rise, and for how long, still depends on the choices governments, businesses and societies make today.

“Overshoot is not surrender. Overshoot should really lead to a much greater degree of urgency,” Mr Hart says, calling for faster emissions cuts and greater investment in protecting vulnerable communities.

Despite the warning, he sees reasons for optimism.

“The good news in this horrible situation of overshoot is that the world has never been better equipped to solve this challenge,” he says, pointing to the rapid expansion of electric vehicles, solar energy and battery storage.

If the solutions exist, what’s holding us back?

Clean energy investment has grown rapidly, but its benefits have been far from equally distributed.

Emerging and developing economies outside China, home to nearly two-thirds of the world's population, received just 18 per cent of global clean energy investment in 2025.

Africa illustrates the challenge. Despite its enormous renewable energy potential, the continent attracts only a small share of global investment, while around 600 million people still lack access to electricity.

Mr. Hart says capital investment is one of the biggest obstacles. Financing renewable energy projects in developing countries can cost several times more than in wealthier nations, even when the technology is identical.

“So, our task now, in this second decade of the Paris Agreement, is to ensure that we remove the barriers to implementation, the barriers to faster action in these economies,” he explains.

For countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens, the challenge is particularly difficult, leaving governments with limited resources to invest in healthcare, education and climate protection.

“We need solutions on finance that will not increase debt,” Mr. Hart stresses.

COP31 will not solve the climate crisis in two weeks. But it could help remove some of the barriers standing between the solutions already available and the people who need them.

For millions living with the consequences of a warming planet, that is what will matter long after the summit ends.

Follow the latest developments from COP31 through our new podcast, Talk & Action, and our special daily coverage of the conference.