Regarding Nomads Inc/Mongolia:
I think this article does a fairly good job of capturing a lot of the shortcomings in the current ‘solutions’, but it also glosses over/omits some important details (I guess you have to in such a complex problem and with space constraints writers face). It’s very easy to identify problems in Mongolia, and almost impossible to find solutions because the scale and severity of the issues facing herders is so huge. I’ve worked a lot of places like this, and I can’t think of a more dire situation.
The article appropriately identifies the lack of voice and authority provided to herders and local herders/herder groups to help solve these problems. A lot of the solutions are dictated both by the government in UB and by NGOs and similar, most of the latter of which come from a western perspective. This ignores some fundamental issues – the idea that solutions can be market based despite the fact that previous models that were sustainable were much more social in nature, and that ownership of property is the only viable model for managing land use and rights to use of land. There is also continual talk of livestock population and the load that could be managed by the land biomass, but very little attention paid the (declining) quality of that biomass and the dramatically changed pasture ecology.
Before I get into that I also want to clarify what a dzud is. The article characterizes it as a winter storm, and this leans into the framing of climate impacts as event-based or shocks whereas I think dzud is better framed as an always present risk that is increasing in severity and frequency. A dzud is not a storm, it is a prolonged event that lasts the entire winter and, depending on the type of dzud, can include the end of the summer where it impacts dzud strength (for instance, a very dry summer). Winters are far from an event the way storm would indicate – in Mongolia, winter is effectively from September to May. We’re talking about an event that lasts over half of the year. Further, its not one type – in Mongolia the herders describe 7 different types of dzuds that have different features, all potentially devastating to livestock herds. Climate change dramatically impacts this, overgrazing of course doesn’t help, but aside from overgrazing itself the very high national herd population suffers because food is most scarce during these times and high mortality events are increasingly very common.
Now to the history…
Written records going back as early as the thirteenth century show a long history of socio-political unit administration of pastoral lands in Mongolia, where each household belonged to a unit which had a specific territorial basis and this correlated to taxation and set real boundaries on pasture use. Under the Manchu Qing Empire from the seventeenth to twentieth century, Tibetan Buddhist institutions acted as a local administrative authority under the central government in Beijing and enacted strict pasture use policies, including enforcement by police monitoring of pasture use.
Soviet management brought the collectivization system, which was implemented by 1959. During this time, each herder specialized on one livestock species and herds were kept in common unfenced pasture areas. Nearly all aspects of herd management and support were centrally planned, including supply of hay for harsh winter conditions (dzuds), seasonal migration of households and livestock, collection of milk, transport of livestock for sale and provision and use of wells in arid areas. Each Soum had a central settlement with herders living in surrounding areas, and organized into brigades that specialized in the same livestock and normally consisted of up to 10 herding families. Collectives were given production orders from the state and paid a fixed price for a quotas of raw materials. Each herder within the collective received a salary from the state for their work. To supply herders with much depended upon hay for harsh winters, the government developed a grain industry in the country.
In the 1990s, many of these support structures for herders disappeared as the country transitioned from the centralized socialist management system to a market economy. Collectives were eliminated and collective assets, including livestock, privatized by 1993. The liquidation of collectives left herder families to perform those functions previously provided by collectives, including preparation and purchase of winter fodder, organizing seasonal migrations, maintenance of wells and transporting of products for sale. Unemployment rose quickly, caused by the collapse of the economy and the loss of socialist state jobs in soums and factories.
The unemployment caused by the collapse of the economy, loss of state and factory employment options combined with the privatization of livestock lead to a dramatic increase in the number of herding families. Additionally, extremely high inflation rates during the 1990s incentivized many herders to keep animals as savings and only sell the minimum amount of animals required to fund immediate needs. The immediate response of herders, who now relied on their production for income instead of a state-paid salary, was to dramatically increase livestock numbers, nearly doubling livestock populations from 22 million in 1990 to 40 million in 2007.
The combination of increasing numbers of herding families, dramatic increases in livestock population and the dissipation of a controlled pasture system into an open access system has led to significant overgrazing. Cashmere became the most reliable source of income for herders relative to other livestock-derived raw materials due to relatively stable demand and pricing on export markets, resulting in a significant shift amongst herders towards raising goats. This shift further contributed to grassland degradation, as goats are generally more damaging (they pull up plants by the roots rather than graze the tops only). But absent other reliable markets, government or social supports, herders had little choice but to maximize goats within their herds. Further, the article states the government has policies to reduce livestock that are not enforced. Not only this, they have policies that contradict this goal, with awards for herders who amass the most animals. These awards carry a lot of prestige in herding communities – and it is a surreal experience to have a herder tell you he sees the desertification and would love to have a functional pasture use agreement/group with other herders in the valley to reduce populations, and then seconds later show with pride his two awards from the government for herder of the year based on he himself having the largest herd!
This overgrazing has combined with climate change to have a dramatic impact on grasslands. Over the period 1988-2008, nearly all steppe grasslands experienced a significant decrease in vegetation optical depth in satellite records, with 60% of this decline attributed to climate change and climate variations and 40% attributed to grazing pressures, wildfires and other non-climactic factors.
The above all contributes to another aspect I feel the article – and many of the projects she rightly criticizes – gloss over. It is not just overgrazing, it is the degradation of the pasture ecology and especially the most robust species (woody shrubs, often with significant root systems) that formerly served as a buffer for fodder during winter. Now in Mongolia, you can find some of these woody shrub fodder plants only near stream or riverbanks whereas herders suggest they used to be distributed across pastures. The pastures themselves often have only 2-3 species of grass where herders can remember times 20-30 years ago where there would have been 10-15 species. Most of the remaining species many people would observe as weedy – they are colonizer species that grow quickly but not very efficient or resilient. There are nearly no perennial plants left. There are patches of open soils that the winds move, carry away before the spring green up – which comes later with increasingly sever dzuds. I have seen one valley almost completely colonized by plant that looks to be related to rhubarb and which herder confirmed animals would not eat. You can see desertification with your eyes in many places – and the herders definitely see it. Even if livestock populations are successfully brought down, it would take years – maybe decades – for recovery of these complex ecosystems on which the previous sustainable herding models operated for at least 800 years.
There aren’t any easy answers, however I feel like these articles try very hard to capture the complexity of the issue but continually have blind spots. I’m sure I miss many things too, but just wanted to provide some more context.
