Do Job Postings Show Early Labor‑Market Effects of AI?
A look at AI’s impact on labor demand and whether early evidence of its effect on the labor market appears in firms’ job postings.
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Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause
A look at federal student loan default rates and which borrowers have defaulted on their loans over the past two quarters, exploring credit implications.
Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom?
The conflict in the Middle East has precipitated a global supply shock—the third in six years following the pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The current shock raises the specter of spillovers to...
Stress and Strain from NBFIs to Banks
New analysis shows NBFI stress from bankruptcies like Tricolor directly impacts bank stock returns, with exposed banks seeing 1.2% lower returns.
Same Shock, Different Roads? A K‑Shaped Pattern at the Pump
A look at the recent surge in energy prices and how a K-shaped pattern emerged in gasoline consumption, with faster growth for high-income households.
In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?
A look at how recent changes in U.S. trade policy has affected trade between the U.S., China, and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Explaining the K‑Shaped Economy: What’s Behind the Divide?
An analysis of the recent divergence in consumer spending in which higher-income households experience faster spending growth than lower-income households.
Tracking the K‑Shaped Economy: Who’s Driving Spending?
A look at how recent consumer spending growth has been driven by high-income households, with consumption exhibiting a K-shaped economy since 2023.
Bank Failures: The Roles of Solvency and Liquidity
Do banks fail because of runs or because they become insolvent? Answering this question is central to understanding financial crises and designing effective financial stability policies. Long-run historical evidence reve...
The R*–Labor Share Nexus
The authors provide a simple model that captures the joint evolution of the labor share and the natural rate of interest, referred to as "r-star."
Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training
The authors look at access to gen AI tools in the workplace and how much workers value training, from the Nov. Survey of Consumer Expectations.
What Millions of Homeowner’s Insurance Contracts Reveal About Risk Sharing
A look at how homeowner’s insurance contracts are designed with respect to property risk.