Synthetic Stablecoins and Financial Stability
A look at how potential additional tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025 drove a price shock through digital assets known as synthetic stablecoins.
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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026
An update of the economic forecasts generated by the NY Fed’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, including its change since March 2026.
The Unintended Effects of Interest Rate Caps: Credit Reallocation to Safer Borrowers
A look at how lenders reallocate credit after usury limits are implemented, using the example of recent interest rate caps in three U.S. states.
The Unintended Effects of Interest Rate Caps: Credit Rationing for Risky Borrowers
A look at how interest rate caps on alternative credit providers have played out for high-risk borrowers in several states that recently adopted them.
Struggling Regional Small Businesses Deeply Pessimistic About 2026 Prospects
A look at the results of the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, which finds declines in employment and revenue growth in the Second District.
Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined
A look at the rise in remote work since the pandemic, and how this trend has influenced the recent increase in youth unemployment among college graduates.
The Regional Side of the Story: K‑Shaped Pattern in Region, Wider Gap in Gas Spending
A look at K-shaped spending patterns in the Second District using regional consumer spending indicators in the April 2026 Economic Heterogeneity Indicators.
Food Insecurity and Consumer Pessimism
A look at the food insecurity and consumer pessimism facing large segments of the U.S. population using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation
The authors use their own measure of wage growth persistence, Trend Wage Inflation, to summarize wage growth behavior in the past and what may lie ahead.
AI’s Macroeconomic Challenges and Promises
A look at how the tension between AI's long-run promise and its short-run costs affects the outlooks for inflation, real activity, and financial stability.
The Global Credit Cycle in Corporate Bond Returns
The authors introduce the global credit factor, which creates a global credit cycle in bond risk premia and generates predictable co-movement in bond prices.
Honey, Who Shrunk the U.S. Income Surplus?
The net investment income surplus faded due to post-pandemic interest rate hikes and continued net sales of U.S. assets to foreign investors.