The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2026
A look at the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.
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Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels
A look at how the New York Fed’s February regional surveys find that firms do not believe inflation will be on the rise in the short or longer term.
Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?
A look at the effect of rising health insurance costs on wage growth using the New York Fed’s February regional business surveys.
What’s Driving Rising Business Costs?
An analysis of the cost increases that occurred among businesses in the New York-Northern New Jersey region in 2025, using the February regional surveys.
The Post‑Pandemic Global R*
In this post we provide a measure of “global” r* using data on short- and long-term yields and inflation for several countries with the approach developed in “Global Trends in Interest Rates” (Del Negro, Giannone, Gianno...
Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia
A look at how risk premia play a meaningful role in shaping the term structure of returns in the corporate bond market.
Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts
Labor markets around the world are being reshaped by powerful trends, including rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and population aging in some regions and youth bulges in others. AI's impact on labor market...
What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?
A look at men’s and women’s preferences for sex composition, or the mix of men and women, in the workplace.
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data
A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find...
Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most?
Though still near low long-term levels, mortgage delinquencies are up, especially in areas with rising unemployment and worse housing market conditions.
Does the Phillips Curve Steepen When Costs Surge?
A look at how nonlinear inflation dynamics relate to the slope of the Phillips curve.